Coming off the heels of two record-setting years at the box office, the movie theater industry was wide-eyed and bushy-tailed heading into 2020, gunning for yet another year at or above $11.4+ billion in gross sales. Then COVID happened. And what was supposed to be $11.4+ billion turned out to be a mere $2.1 billion, making 2020 the worst year at the box office since 1981.
Not even 'Barbenheimer' can save the movie theater business from imploding.
The Franchise Blockbuster
By early 2021, cinemas began to re-open, but not without challenges. The pandemic had fundamentally changed the landscape of the industry, reducing the number of screens in the US by 5.25% and delaying production on projects across the board by months. Now, not only did theaters have to contend with safely allowing audiences to watch movies in shared spaces, they also had to address the looming threat of streaming. Netflix, Prime Video, and Disney+ were now able to show the same movies as theaters from the comfort (and safety) of a viewer's couch.
In recognition of the rise of streaming, among other challenges, the industry knew it had to pivot. The strategy for theaters became this: show the type of movies that deserve to be seen on the big screen. So, the industry turned to the franchise blockbuster to lure back audiences and support business through 2021, a year which earned a still-underwhelming $4.5 billion in sales. The Marvel franchise led the recovery effort with "Spider-Man: No Way Home", "Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings", and "Venom: Let There Be Carnage" topping the 2021 year-end box office.
The Movie Theater Industry Pivots Post-Pandemic
Though theaters were beginning to fill more seats in 2022, it became clear to industry experts that the franchise blockbuster wouldn't be able to grow business back to pre-pandemic scale. Audiences had become fed up with the formulaic, predictable superhero/action movies that, just years earlier, were seemingly guaranteed box-office successes. This change in audience sentiment toward superhero/action films became called 'Marvel fatigue' because Marvel Studios churned out these types of movies in an attempt to re-establish their identity after their box-office smash “Avengers: Infinity War”. Thankfully, the industry was perceptive enough to, again, recognize their shortcomings and pivot.
This time around, the industry used information collected by the United Talent Agency to inform its shift in strategy. The study done by the research agency indicated 33% of consumers would go to the movies if more options were offered. To adapt to the results of the study, the industry shifted from relying on the franchise blockbuster to using a high volume, high variety approach to keep audiences coming to theaters. And that's where Greta Gerwig's “Barbie” and Christopher Nolan's “Oppenheimer” come into play. There's no better example of variety in the movie business than 'Barbenheimer'.
'Barbenheimer' Explained
The darkness and gravity of “Oppenheimer” contrasted against the levity and playfulness of “Barbie” captured audiences' attention when the internet found out both movies would premiere on July 21st, 2023. The people went feral. They lived for the antithesis of it all. They made memes and predictions and plans to see both movies in a single day in a particular order (Oppenheimer → Barbie or you're dead to me). They pulled up in full-fledged costumes to the theater. And they generated an unprecedented amount of buzz, the likes of which Warner Bros and Universal couldn't have predicted, but eventually played into by the end of each film's promotional cycle. Margot Robbie and Greta Gerwig went as far as seeing an early screening of Oppenheimer and posting about it on social media (totally awesome!).
'Barbenheimer' was and still is THE movie moment of the year. It's a moment that's made such a cultural and box-office splash that it's been hailed as the comeback of cinema in the post-pandemic era. During opening weekend, Barbie and Oppenheimer earned $155 million and $80 million in domestic sales, respectively, making history as the first time two films grossed above $100 million and $50 million in a single weekend. Furthermore, 'Barbehneimer's' debut became the fourth highest-grossing weekend of all time at the box office, likely to tighten the 21% gap between 2023 sales so far and 2019 equivalent sales, the latter of which the industry is still chasing. Regardless, 'Barbenheimer' has given the industry hope that it can bounce back from the pandemic with its high volume, high variety strategy. However, if the movie theater industry isn't as perceptive as it has been, their strategy won't work for much longer.
The Movie Industry Is Going To Implode
Despite 2023 being the year of 'something for everyone' in cinema, it hasn't been the year for writers. In May, the Writers Guild of America (WGA) went on strike against the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers (AMPTP) to protest unfair streaming residuals, the lack of pension and healthcare plans, and AI replacing writing jobs. Then, in July, the Screen Actors Guild and American Federation of Television and Radio Artists (SAG-AFTRA) also went on strike, calling for payment and job security to reflect the streaming-oriented lean of the industry post-pandemic. With protestors showing no signs of stopping and insiders saying studios aren't willing to negotiate, the already lengthy strike will likely last even longer. As a result, movies slated for 2024 have been put on pause. Among those affected by the strike are “Deadpool 3”, “Wicked: Part One”, and “It Ends With Us”.
That said, the strike isn't the only concerning thing affecting the movie theater industry in 2024 – the live-action remake trend is of concern as well. Live action versions of “Avatar: The Last Airbender”, “Snow White”, and “Mufasa: The Lion King” are set to debut next year, despite growing backlash against the trend. Audiences have been vocal about their dislike toward repurposed content and have proven original storytelling trumps all else as evidenced by the success of “Squid Games” and “The Queen's Gambit”. It's perplexing to see the industry move in this direction after finding their footing with their high volume, high variety approach. And unlike that strategy, the repurposing of content seems to lack the forethought and insight that has, up until this point, governed how the industry has navigated uncharted territory in the post-pandemic era. 2024 is looking like a box-office bomb of a year and 'Barbenheimer' is looking like it'll be one of the last great movie moments for years to come.
Praying for a pivot,
The Monochrome Man